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Lessons in Growth and Maturation: Tracking Hurricanes & the Stock Market and the Prediction of Future Athletes

Lessons in Growth and Maturation: Tracking Hurricanes & the Stock Market and the Prediction of Future Athletes

How well can we predict the future athletic ability of kids?

Joe Eisenmann, PhD's avatar
Joe Eisenmann, PhD
Feb 02, 2023
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IronMan Performance
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Lessons in Growth and Maturation: Tracking Hurricanes & the Stock Market and the Prediction of Future Athletes
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During my years as a pediatric exercise science researcher, I have examined how physical activity, fitness, and athleticism change with age and advancing maturation, how physical activity or training impacts the development of fitness and athleticism, and how physical activity and fitness/athleticism ‘track’ throughout childhood and adolescence...and potentially into adulthood.

(Short pause … Hmmm … Thinking…) Wait a minute. Track? What does that mean? What does it mean that fitness or athleticism ‘track’ during childhood and adolescence?

(Another pause as you pull up a new tab in your web browser and search ‘what does tracking mean’) Let’s see, links to popular package shipping companies like FedEx, US Postal Service, etc. …Amazon tracking numbers… hurricane tracking and prediction… and tracking investments in the stock market. This can’t be it.

Or maybe you Googled ‘athlete tracking’ and found links to GPS monitoring and athlete monitoring systems that are all the rave in sports science. Nope, still not it. But, we are getting closer to defining how tracking relates to the development of fitness and athleticism in youth.  As a clue, tracking of all of these things (packages, hurricanes, and the stock market) tell us where something or someone is, has been, and where it might be going. So yes, we are on the right track (pun intended!).

GROWTH IS A JOURNEY

Like a train traveling on the track, growth is a journey.
Like a train traveling on the track, growth is a journey.

My good friend and colleague, Dr. Adam Baxter-Jones, shows a slide in his presentations of a train and a child growth chart that is titled – Growth is a journey!

Just like the package traveling across the country, the child is also on a journey that can be tracked. This includes body size – height and weight – which was discussed in a previous blog, and also athletic qualities like speed, strength, vertical jump, aerobic fitness, throwing velocity, etc.

TRACKING OF ATHLETICISM: A DEFINITION AND EXAMPLES

Although you are probably getting a clear idea of what tracking is as it relates to child growth, fitness and athleticism, let’s officially get to a definition. In pediatric exercise science, tracking refers to the idea of maintenance of a relative position within a given group of individuals as they change over time. Sometimes the term ‘stability’ is also used. As in, how stable is a trait (fitness, strength, speed, etc.) over time? Does Johnny or Sally remain among the fastest and strongest from age 8 to age 9 to age 12 and beyond?

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This concept of tracking is much easier to understand with a visual. A picture is always worth a thousand words. Let’s start simple with an example of a growth chart like the one used in a pediatrician’s office.  Little Johnny has his height measured every year during his wellness check-up. When he was 6, he was near the 75th percentile and his height tracked along the 75th percentile until age 9.  

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