The Tyranny of Talent
Excerpts from Dr. Joe Baker's book on talent ID and youth athletic development
“She is so talented. I bet she’ll make the national team when she gets older.”
We have all heard this or something like it from coaches, scouts, parents, fans, and aunts and uncles.
But, what is talent? And how should we be nurturing and developing it? And, does early identification of it predict future success anyways?
These questions are at the root of the career of Dr. Joe Baker who has studied and researched talent, primarily athletic talent, and its identification, selection and development over the past two decades. He has published several original research papers, and summarized much of the work in this area in review articles and book chapters, and now in a book - ‘The Tyranny of Talent’.
When I first tweeted that I was reading the book, Joe communicated with me that he was looking forward to my thoughts. I immediately responded writing: “my initial thought in beginning to read it is how great it is for you (and other scholars) to be able to write and express ideas outside the standard academic genre of writing for scientific publication!” By this I mean, I doubt that many of you will read the scientific papers published in academic journals that are linked above. And, even if you did go to this end, you, like many others, may find it challenging to understand the academic and scientific jargon and jibbily-gook of how academics write. In the Tyranny of Talent, Baker was uninhibited by this academic genre of writing and thus could story-tell and elaborate more easily on some of his thoughts on the topic, while still providing (and translating) sound evidence and rationale for key concepts related to talent identification, selection, and development.
Here are some key nuggets and passages from the book. [It is important to note that I have taken several passages directly from the book. In many places, but not all, I have quoted the writing of Joe Baker. In other sections, I have paraphrased. Joe was aware of my effort and intentions here.]
What is ‘Talent’?
Let’s start with a definition of talent. Well, let’s at least try to start ….. as there are many definitions and descriptions since it means different things to different people. Give it a go - ask a handful of people ‘what is talent?’.
Although there may not be a consensus on the definition, most come back to defining talent as 'innate or natural (physical) abilities'. However, don’t forget the environment or the cognitive/mental aspects. More on this later.
Some historical (and statistical) aspects of the study of talent
In an early chapter of the book (Ch 3), Baker provides a historical account of Francis Galton's quest for hereditary genius (e.g., “talent”) in late 1800s. The idea, which now is considered part of the eugenics movement, was to examine if people with a high level of intellectual skill had offspring who succeeded in high-profile professions. To study this area, Galton derived the correlation statistic (relationship between variable x and variable y) to associate or correlate familial 'success'.
Continuing with the idea of intelligence or IQ in the early 20th century was the advent of the Binet-Simon IQ test. In turn, similar IQ tests were also adapted to identify (“talented”) military recruits for World War I .
Around the same time, Spearman suggested that various or multiple measures of cognition collectively reflected a single capacity or a common general factor (g). This led to the expansion of the correlation into what is known as Factor Analysis, where g equalled a general intelligence factor. The use of this statistical concept was applied to physical performance and athleticism by Brace and McCloy who proposed the ideas of general motor abilities and motor educability, respectively.
Ch 4 & 5 The Babe Ruth Experiment and Grand Master Champions
In 1921, the Sultan of Swat, Mr. George Herman “Babe” Ruth, visited the Columbia University Psychology Lab in New York and undertook a series of psychomotor tests. The results claimed his superior performance. However, these were general tasks of reaction time, etc. and there is little, if any, difference among top athletes and the general population on some of these general tasks.
So what delineates expert performers? In brief, top athletes possess the ability to process information quickly and make the correct decision or response which emphasizes not just their physical fitness qualities but the importance of the brain/perceptual-action coupling. This includes:
picking up information that has more relevance
quality of time-restricted decision-making
ability to identify information from the opponent; they anticipate (exceptionally well)
they are masters of space and time
the perceptual-cognitive system is highly specific to task
appropriate amounts of the right type of training; much of which it deliberate practice
they spend >high quality hours of training including video and 1-v-1 with a coach
at younger ages, they played a lot of different sports
Ch 6 Winning the Biological Lottery: Is it in the Genes?
In an early chapter that examined the history of the study of talent and familial resemblance in success (see above), it is also pointed out in a study by Baker and colleagues that parents of elite athletes were more likely to have been elite athletes themselves. It is pointed out that "while results support a parent-offspring relationship (in sporting success), they don't necessarily prove the importance of familial genes" .. and furthermore "these variables cannot be separated into genetic vs environmental factors since opportunity and biology interact".
In chapter 6, Dr Baker spends time on a few basics of genetics/heredity including how it is studied via family and twin studies; the concept of heredity or heritability and that it is not necessarily 100% biological genes - it includes the shared (family) environment; heritability estimates are population statistics, not individual (i.e., 50% of this/that trait is heritability); mention of the Human Genome Project which led to identification of SNPs (stands for single nucleotide polymorphism) and candidate genes (e.g., ACE, ACTN, etc.) used in association studies.
Remember, every phenotype is impacted by genes, the environment and the gene-environmental interaction.
A key point made in this chapter was the likelihood of a single SNP paying off in a big way for complex traits that leads to sports performance is small. Why? Human characteristics are robustly polygenic, meaning several hundreds or thousands of genes interact with each other ... and the environment to produce the phenotpe - as mentioned above.
Can an athlete have the “perfect” genetic makeup? One study was mentioned that examined endurance athletes. Of the 23 genes for endurance performance, the odds of having all ‘beneficial’ markers was 0.00005%!
Another key point was: “the capacity to take advantage of the genetic differences depends on the developmental ecosystem in which the athlete is placed” Again, Genes + Environment + GxE interaction.
P.S. Please do not read this as a dismissal of the importance of genes and heredity on sports performance .... it's not nature vs nurture .. it’s both. And never forget that humans are freakin' complex! Talent, and its development and performance are complex.
Ch 7 The Power of Labels
“ Suzanna is the best player.”
“Little Johnny can’t walk and chew gum at the same time.”
More than likely, we have all put a label or made a judgement statement about a young athlete. This chapter provides great insight into the potential long-term consequences of 'labeling' a young athlete as gifted or talented .. or not. Negative labeling can harm a youngster just as much as being labelled “a stud” can escalate one! Words matter! Choose and use them wisely. And don’t forget this very important point - if we label early on and select a young athlete ... remember that early selection is a poor indicator of later success.
And why do we do it …. see below
Ch 8 Early Specialization
Early sports specialization continues to be a hot topic in youth sports with many on the multi-sport bandwagon and several other $port-prenuers pushing specialization to FOMO parents in the hopes of a college scholarship.
I appreciate Dr. Baker’s scientific objectivity to this topic — he writes “Despite strong rhetoric ... it's important to acknowledge that the evidence base is plagued with inconsistent definitions, poor measurement precision, problematic study designs and a general lack of critical thinking about what these findings mean for athletes and sport systems." Furthermore "...there are several position statements grounded in the speculation that specialization MIGHT influence outcomes WITHOUT establishing causal evidence.
Hmmm ... is early sport specialization really that bad? .....
Yep, I’m just going to open that can-o-worms ….and leave it …
Ch 9 When and Where
Related to labeling and early specialization and talent selection is the idea (and the data) showing that when and where you are born and raised impacts talent selection, and hence development.
When you are born: this is referred to as the birthdate effect or the relative age effect. It produces an “annoyingly persistent bias” where participation is higher amongst those born earlier in the relevant selection period (and lower for those born later in the selection period) than would be expected from the distribution of births. This has been found in academia and several sports.
Where you are raised: location, location, location! It’s just not true for business but also talent development. This has also been called the birthplace effect. In 2006, Professor Jean Cote, the academic mentor of Joe Baker, published a study showing a birthplace bias towards smaller cities with professional athletes being over-represented in cities of less than 500,000 and under-represented in cities of 500,000 and over.
Ch 10 What’s The Price of Glory
I think this single statement sums up the chapter - It’s not only a financial burden (e.g. youth hockey = $5000-$20,000/yr) but also social, emotional, mental and physical, including injuries that cause pain and discomfort into adult life. I think we all know a few of these stories.
Ch 11 Buyer’s Remorse
Statistical analysis of the NFL draft shows that only 1st round picks are associated with a longer playing career and future performance. After the 1st round, there is considerable variability or uncertainty into the investment that NFL teams are making on potential talent.
Thus, one may ask - what’s the utility and predictability of combines for the selection of talent into professional sport and subsequent performance?
Prior to selection (e.g., the draft), the following information is available on the athlete: demographic data, high school and/or college performance, and combine results.
Upon selection into professional sport, there are several additional factors that impact “success” - none of which can be known. These include: transition into pro sport, farm system development, injury management, and ultimately, performance.
Baker concludes “given the low accuracy of prediction .. the rationale for staying shackled to old ways of doing things (scouting / combine) seems weak”.
Solutions?
Section 1 (Chapters 1-6) explored what is talent, the history of thinking about what it is, and some factors associated with it. Section 2 (Chapters 7-11) exposed how talent (identification, selection and development) is compromised by existing systems. So, if there’s a problem … there needs to be some suggested solutions.
We tend to blame parents (and coaches) on the problems of youth sport ... perhaps the more critical question is not 'how do we fix parents who pressure their kids too much and too early' ..but rather 'why do parents think this is the appropriate path to success?' Therefore, solutions need to be grounded in understanding the desires of parents and their expectations for their children.
There needs to be a shift from focusing on the problems as being related to behavior to one driven by improper messaging or inadequate education.
The current approaches to talent/athlete development is not an easy problem to fix ... Baker offers two broad solutions:
re-structure the world of youth sport so that these selections occur later (if they need to occur at all)
reduce the influence of selection on long-term development
Ch 15 Re-Creating Youth Sports
The title of this chapter definitely caught my attention, not that the rest of the book didn’t … but how can we re-create youth sports to optimize the experience and athlete development?
A lot of us ‘old school’ folks always talk about ‘the good ol’ days’ of unstructured backyard play and schoolyard pick-up games, etc. However, Baker notes that ...likely gone are days of sandlot, playground, backyards ...and there's a problem with using models of what worked in the past as recipes for future success. Instead, we need to take the lessons of yesteryear and recreate systems and environments within the contemporary landscape.
Regardless of strategy, for athletes to continue to develop their skill they need to stay involved - i.e., not get cut or de-selected from the sports systems. Overall, there needs to be greater efforts to ensure (quality) participation of all youth in sports. As my mentor Professor Bob Malina said “keep as many in the pipeline for as long as possible.”
“ the early ID & development of athletes with better potential for success, ultimately limits how many athletes get the opportunity to chase their dreams of competing at the highest level.”
But back to the current realities. How do we manage those who are de-selected so they have a better chance at re-entry into the sports/talent system? How many times have we seen a late biological maturer or late bloomer (these are not necessarily the same) or a kid with skills that just did not make it, etc. just go by wayside because they become frustrated or get lost, lack of development in current youth sport system? In essence, there needs to be a parallel developmental structure.
But again, back to the current realities …… Baker writes "the Standard Athlete Development (ironically abbreviated as SAD) approach seems to have been created more out of logistical and administrative convenience than grounding in the sciences of human development."
As they say … “We've always done it this way” .... BUT Baker concludes "there's no reason to feel beholden to current systems or approaches."
Ch 16 No-size-fits-all LTAD Model
LTAD models or frameworks - people love them or hate them! Although LTAD models provide useful approximations of the pathway, they assume that the pathway to success can be reduced to a single, simple trajectory. However, talent is not a single thing — it's the reflection of a collection of often disparate variables manifesting into displays of performance that have meaning at single points in time and for each individual.
A Few Final Key Points
Baker makes the following key points late in the book:
A 21st century approach to talent should involve greater focus on the PROCESS of athlete development and reflect a combinatorial relationship between genetics and environmental factors …. plus the role of luck and random chance.
… the closer one looks .. the less the general model applies. A superior approach is to consider predictions about an athlete’s potential as a type of likelihood estimate with a degree of error and inaccuracy.
A more fruitful and evidence-informed approach to modeling athlete development would see athletes taking one of several possible trajectories …
Given the low rates of youth engagement in youth sport and physical activity, high performance systems should be doing everything they can to maintain all athletes’ engagement, at any level, for as long as possible.
Just as (predicting) the weather is a dynamic process that needs updating and being refined as new information emerges, predictions (of athletic talent) will change over time (and become more accurate as the 'day' arrives).
And The Finale and Encore: Joe Baker’s Principles of Talent Development
Individual’s differ on elements related to talent (genetics and environmental exposure over time)
Predictors of performance change over time
Models of athlete development and prediction need to be multi-faceted (technical, tactical, physical, mental, lifestyle, coaching, environment) and flexible (environment, time/age)
Predicting long-term outcomes is a BAD idea… but is often necessary (due to resources, etc)
(Talent ID and LTAD) Frameworks and models built solely on the experience of successful athletes are flawed ….(however), there are a range of things we do not currently know and its important to acknowledge the limitations ..
This blog is based on a twitter thread I posted while reading the book. Full Twitter thread here
Postscript
As I was finishing this piece, I came across another relevant academic article from Joe Baker and my colleague Kevin Till titled Challenges and [Possible] Solutions to Optimizing Talent Identification and Development in Sport. I cannot recall if Joe cited this in the book but the conclusion of the paper is very fitting to this post and re-emphasizes perhaps the key tenets of the book -
"our recommendation is that because it is a complex and misunderstood phenomenon, lacking robust research evidence, difficult to assess and potentially unhealthy, we should STOP thinking about talent per se (especially at younger ages). It may be MORE EFFECTIVE, and ETHICAL, to apply appropriate and research informed practices to everyone (or as many as possible) for as long as possible."